I can get a bit confused by the mood around HIV/AIDS progress. A few questions follow below (click "please review") for your consideration. In general the people and organisations who either monitor and report progress and/or develop and oversee the main strategies, talk in positive tones - good progress being made. But when stories are heard from countries about the ongoing struggle to make even a minor improvement in the HIV/AIDS situation in particular communities/provinces/states or across the whole country, it can be difficult to spot the good news.

Today the Lancet HIV/AIDS magasine published an article "Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015" that helps explain this dynamic but also poses a rather tricky problem on which I would welcome you sharing your analysis and thoughts. When AIDS is viewed related to mortality, all looks good - big decreases in people dying from AIDS related causes: HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths … in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths … in 2015. But for the past 10 years, related to new infections, a much bleaker picture is painted: "Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005". So, deaths down due to ARVs, but annual new infection levels have remained constant since 2005 - for 10 years!


Begs some big questions including

(a) How is that possible?

(b) What have we been doing wrong?

(c) What should we do much better?

Thanks for sharing your analysis and ideas in support of everyone's work on vitally important HIV/AIDS issues.