"Wireless matters....The extraordinary expansion of connectivity that is being witnessed across the world, especially across Asia, would not have happened if not for wireless....But wireless is not the only thing that matters. The technological and business innovations that make possible the current levels of participation and that will enable millions more to participate are not new. What has held back their deployment has been the lack of investment; what has held back investment for the most part has been the unsatisfactory policy and regulatory environment." - Rohan Samarajiva

In October 2005, the Annenberg Research Network on International Communication (ARNIC) at the University of Southern California (USA) held a workshop - "Wireless Communication and Development: A Global Perspective" - as part of a multi-disciplinary effort to study the emergence of new communication infrastructures, examine the transformation of government policies and communication patterns, and analyse the social and economic consequences. In this 23-page paper, Rohan Samarajiva, Director of LIRNEasia traces regional trends related to the growth of wireless technologies - computers and telephones - and explores the regulatory and policy environment that is needed to continue to support these technologies' "enormously important role in extending access to voice and data communications by hitherto excluded groups in society..."

A selection of the communication trends that Samarajiva highlights in this presentation - in the form of descriptive text and figures/graphics - include:

• In 2003, the Asia-Pacific became the world's largest mobile market with 560 million connections, overtaking North America. The Asia-Pacific market grew at 31%, compared to 13% for North America. Despite this, the number of mobile connections per 100 people in the region was only 16, compared to 52 in Europe and 35 in the Americas. To the author, this suggests that the Asia-Pacific growth rates will accelerate even more, as the other two regions slow down, making wireless even more important than it is today. He cites evidence that he feels "clearly shows that the growth rates in the low mobile-penetration countries are very high, indicating that the overall numbers can only go up further."
• Afghanistan is "a country devastated by 23 years of war, which had no mobile and where the number of fixed phones was decreasing every year....If not for wireless, Afghanistan's two private mobile operators could not have added in excess of 170,000 new mobile customers in two year, almost catching up with Bangladesh, which had mobile for more than 10 years, on a per capita basis."
• In Cambodia and Laos, the fixed network is being expanded, primarily for data, using Code-Division Multiple Access (CDMA), a digital cellular technology that uses spread-spectrum techniques; the customer equipment looks like a conventional fixed telephone, but can be used anywhere within the range of the assigned base station using a rechargeable battery. Sri Lanka's expansion of fixed connections in 2005 was enabled by the refarming of frequencies for CDMA 800.
• In general, the Asia-Pacific is also "a major player in mobile data. One consultancy firm calculated that 77% of the world's estimated 100 million mobile data subscribers in 2003 came from the Asia-Pacific, principally Japan and South Korea. The region was making significant progress on 3G mobile services as well, with over 10 million subscribers in 2004. The consultant estimate for WiFi deployments of 21,000+ hot spots in the Asia Pacific in 2003, reported by the ITU [International Telecommunication Union], has surely been exceeded in the past year."

Reflecting on growth patterns such as those highlighted above, Samarajiva notes that, "In all cases, the application of the technology was mediated by institutions, primarily the incumbent monopolies. Now with a majority of the world's countries abandoning the monopoly supply model, the conditions are better for greater participation, innovation and contribution to development."

However, "there remain many institutional barriers. Their removal must be the focus if we wish to see wireless contribute to development." That is, policy and regulatory reforms, followed by credible implementation, are - in Samarajiva's estimation - "essential" if investment in the deployment of wireless technologies is to continue to stimulate this growth. In short, he concludes that "Ability to participate in the supply of services to meet pent up demand in the form of removing barriers to entering hitherto monopolized markets is an essential condition for applying wireless technologies to extend connectivity. Although more than half the Asian countries now allow some form of market entry in basic services (higher in mobile, etc.), even where entry is allowed the conditions are not optimal for investment...."

Click here for the full paper in PDF format.
Click here for the full paper in PowerPoint format.

Editor's note: A revised version of this paper was published in 2006: Samarajiva, R. (2006). Preconditions for Effective Deployment of Wireless Technologies for Development in the Asia-Pacific [PDF], Information Technology and International Development, 3(2): 57-71.